Corona & Early Postal Voting Costs Trump the Election

November 9, 2020
US 2020 Election

Whilst allegations of postal vote irregularities and fraud continue, Ivan Greenwald, CEO of MOBOPINIONS, believes that the Trump campaign was in fact mostly affected by President Trump’s apparent disregard for COVID-19 and by him then being unable to campaign, after being positively diagnosed and hospitalized.

Loss of faith in Trumps handling of the pandemic:

In April President Trump had broad support for his handling of the Corona pandemic with only 35% of potential voters saying they opposed his handling, but by our last poll on Oct 27th that opposition had risen to 48%.

Corona diagnosis halts President Trump’s campaigning:

The timeline below, using MOBOPINIONS poll results and published data, shows that although the Trump campaign saw an expected positive swing towards election day, President Trump being unable to campaign, whilst having Corona, when millions of people were already casting their postal votes, may have cost him the election.

Sept 23rd- MOBOPINIONS Poll finds Trump 15% behind Biden, head to head, with 15% undecided.

Sept 26th- Amy Coney Barrett announced as nominee for Supreme Court Justice at Whitehouse, with 200 people and few masks or social distancing; 11 people come down with COVID-19, and this is potentially where President Trump was infected.

Sept 27th- 944,000 postal votes cast.

Oct 2nd- 9th Trump confirmed as having COVID-19 all rallies and 2nd debate are cancelled.

Oct 10th- Trump back on campaign trail

Oct 18th- 28million postal votes cast.

Oct 19th- Poll finds Trump only 12.2% behind Biden, head to head, with 9.3% undecided. Trump campaign now spending heavily on advertising.

Oct 25th- 60million postal votes cast.

Oct 27th- Poll finds Trump still 5.6% behind Biden, head to head, with 11.8% undecided.

Nov 3rd- over 100million postal votes cast.

Election result- Trump only 3.1% behind Biden, head to head.


The representative samples were collected in April from 501 responses with a margin of error of 4%, in September from 432 responses with a margin of error of 5% and in October from 534 responses with a margin of error of 5%.

MOBOPINIONS has established a reputation for accessing the opinions of mobile users who do not typically answer surveys. They use a unique technology that is based around a proprietary mobile survey research platform, that reaches over 1.8 billion monthly respondents, in 190 countries, within thousands of existing apps on smartphones and tablets. The platform enables survey researchers and brands to gain the opinions of their mobile audiences accurately, quickly, and efficiently, through a cost-effective manner, that uses existing app based data.